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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that were 531,000 jobs created in October, which was stronger than the 450,000 expected. There were 235,000 in positive revisions to August and September, which adds to the strength of this report. The private sector showed strong gains of 604,000, but Government jobs fell by 73,000. Leisure and Hospitality only showed 73,000 in job gains, which was disappointing and a mismatch from the ADP report we saw on Wednesday. The Unemployment Rate decreased from 4.8% to 4.6%. The unemployment rate is derived from the household survey, which has its own job creation component. Within the household survey there were 359,000 job creations, while the labor force increased by 104,000. The number of unemployed people decreased by 255,000, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2%. Average hourly earnings and average weekly earnings are both up roughly 5% year over year. Wage growth is running even hotter if you annualized the pace over the last 6 months. Leisure and Hospitality earnings are up almost 12% year over year, but it appears it’s still not enough to attract the workers we need there.

jobless claims 11 11 5 2021
Jobless Claims 11 11 5 2021

Initial Jobless Claims, which measures individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, were down 14,000 to 269,000, which is the lowest reading since before the pandemic. Continuing Claims, which measures individuals who continue to receive benefits, fell 134,000 to 2.1M, which is also a post pandemic low. Federal Covid plans, including the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Emergency Claims fell by 4,000, while extended benefits increased by 27,000. There are now 2.67M people in total receiving benefits, which is down 158,000 from last week. Claims continue to fall and are starting to resemble numbers we saw prior to the pandemic. This makes sense because how hard it is to find workers – the pace of firings is certainly slowing. The question is when these individuals will come back to the workplace now that they are not receiving benefits.

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